Here, we outline how applying the consumer electronic model to satellites could lead to multiple tragedies of the commons. The current governance system for LEO, while slowly changing, is ill-equipped to handle large satellite systems. Others have similar plans, including OneWeb, Amazon, Telesat, and GW, which is a Chinese state-owned company 2. SpaceX alone is on track to add 11,000 more as it builds its Starlink mega-constellation and has already filed for permission for another 30,000 satellites with the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) 1. In two years, the number of active and defunct satellites in LEO has increased by over 50%, to about 5000 (as of 30 March 2021). International cooperation is urgently needed, along with a regulatory system that takes into account the effects of tens of thousands of satellites.Ĭompanies are placing satellites into orbit at an unprecedented frequency to build ‘mega-constellations’ of communications satellites in Low Earth Orbit (LEO). De facto orbit occupation by single actors, inadequate regulatory frameworks, and the possibility of free-riding exacerbate these risks. The total cross-section of satellites in these constellations also greatly increases the risk of impacts due to meteoroids. Using simple models, we also show that untracked debris will lead to potentially dangerous on-orbit collisions on a regular basis due to the large number of satellites within mega-constellation orbital shells. For example, we point out that satellite re-entries from the Starlink mega-constellation alone could deposit more aluminum into Earth’s upper atmosphere than what is done through meteoroids they could thus become the dominant source of high-altitude alumina. Moreover, the connections between the Earth and space environments are inadequately taken into account by the adoption of a consumer electronic model applied to space assets.
The rapid development of mega-constellations risks multiple tragedies of the commons, including tragedies to ground-based astronomy, Earth orbit, and Earth’s upper atmosphere.
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